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>$200,000. A surprising reversal of fortune.

October's financial collapse was a wake-up call for anyone saving for the future. When banks, big banks, started falling like dominoes we turned off our portfolio's auto-pilot and took a closer look at our savings and investments.

This was bad news for McCain and the GOP. Starting in mid-October Americans witnessed a shocking devaluation of their Mutual Funds and 401(K)s. At the very same moment Americans saw a 25%, 30%, 45% devaluation of their retirement savings the GOP's standard bearer cluelessly insisted that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong."

That dissonance was loud, and it apparently woke up the even wealthiest Americans.

Voters with a combined family income greater than $200,000 did a remarkable thing in this election. They voted for a Democrat. This isn't a population that would even have been considered competitive only four years ago. High income families have traditionally occupied a foundational place in the Republican Coalition. They've even earned a clever moniker: "Country Club Republicans. But what a difference four years make; this population swung 17 points towards the Democrats since 2004.

They also doubled in size. This population, only 3% of the electorate in 2004, was 6% of the voting population in 2008. No more cruise control on easy street.

I don't believe 2008 represents a permanent realignment of this population's partisan allegiances, nor do I believe this merely represents a moment of panic. In my opinion this population decided it was time to try something new; which wasn't something the GOP or McCain had to offer. In order to permanently realign this population, Barack Obama and the new administration must successfully create new areas of economic growth. If not, history will judge 2008 a moment of panic.

Tomorrow: Mandate, Part 1; EV 365.
Wednesday: Mandate, Part 2; 10% Congressional MoV.
Thursday: Mandate, Part 3; 58-42.

Family Income	Size	Obama	McCain
Less than $15,000	6%	73%	25%	2%
$15,000–$29,999	12%	60%	37%	3%
$30,000-$49,999	19%	55%	43%	2%
$50,000-$74,999	21%	48%	49%	3%
$75,000-$99,999	15%	51%	48%	1%
$100,000-$149,999	14%	48%	51%	1%
$150,000-$199,999	6%	48%	50%	2%
Greater than $200,000	6%	52%	46%	2%

Family Income	Size	Bush	Kerry
Less than $15,000	8%	36%	63%	0%
$15,000–$29,999	15%	42%	57%	0%
$30,000-$49,999	22%	49%	50%	0%
$50,000-$74,999	23%	56%	43%	0%
$75,000-$99,999	14%	55%	45%	0%
$100,000-$149,999	11%	57%	42%	1%
$150,000-$199,999	4%	58%	42%	*
Greater than $200,000	3%	63%	35%	1%

#7: 2-to-1. A New Generation Takes Sides.

Since 2004 Democrats have more than tripled their advantage with young voters. In 2000 voters 18-30 were giving their vote in equal part to each party. Today Democrats have a 31 point advantage within this population (called "Millennials").

Not only is this population giving big margins to Democrats, they're participating at record levels. Pull the adage "young voters don't vote" from Convention Wisdom and refile it under Dangerous Ignorance. Are they harder to reach using tradition methods? Sure. As always, the Party that refuses to evolve it's methods to communicate with the voters through their preferred mode does so at great risk. A windfall of votes awaited the Democratic Party as a result of their embrace of the internet.

For many reasons 2008 has been called "the year of the young voter". There's a dirty little secret Rock the Vote probably doesn't want you to know though. Obama won Gen X and Boomer Generation Voters with a large enough margin that McCain's victory with voters older than didn't matter.* In other words, if Young Voter turnout would have been 0%, Obama still would have won the popular vote. Of course, if the election had been as close as past elections, millennials voters could have swung the outcome.

The Millennial generation will be even larger in 2010 and 2012, perhaps more than 20% of the electorate. Many of them have now voted for Democrats in three consecutive elections, signifying that this is becoming an entrenched behavior for this generation.

Until/unless something transformative occurs, most of this generation will proceed through the next decade as a reliable bloc of votes for the Democratic Party.

Tomorrow: >$200,000. A surprising reversal of fortune.
*

Age	Size	Obama	McCain	Other
18–29 years old	18%	66%	32%	2%
30-44 years old	29%	52%	46%	2%
45–64 years old	37%	50%	49%	1%
65 years or older	16%	45%	53%	2%

Blue Tide is still Rising

Pardon my long reprieve from blogging. With the new administration installed, now seems as good as anytime to get back on the keyboard and share my musings with the outside world.

In the wake of (and throughout) the Democratic landslide of 2008 political observers were inundated with so much demographic data that it was wise to always remember the old adage; "it's not the quantity of the data, it's the quality."

So, throughout the next 8 days I will count down the 8 most significant (and under-reported/analyzed) numbers of the 2008 election.

#8. 31%-68% (aka the Latino exodus)
disclaimer: (this number is more significant than it's #8 placement on the list suggests, however, it has received a great deal of attention already from both academia and the media.)

A decade ago Hispanic voters were giving modest and reliable margins to the Democratic Party. Through half a decade of careful courtship George W. Bush effectively challenged the Democrats for this bloc, making slow and steady inroads. In 2000, the RNC nominee collected 35% of the Latino vote. Four years later the RNC nominee made double digit gains with this demographic and collected 45% of the Latino vote.

With the '06 midterms looming Hispanic voters were poised to be the newest swing bloc. Then came a immigration reform debate that put Culture Warrior Conservatives and Country Club Republicans squarley within each others sights. The oft racist debate gave pause to business doners and scared away thoughful latino voters. In the end only 29% of Latino's gave their vote to Republican's in 2006.

Was this abismal performance a temporary backlash against the harsh rhetoric of the GOP in a year where Democrats did better across all demographics, or the harbinger of a more permanent shift in Latino sentiment? We can now say it was the latter. In 2008, a borderstate RNC nominee nabbed only 31% of the Latino vote.

In five years George W. Bush move the dial 10 points with America's fasting growing minority population, but in three short years, the pendulum swung back ever harder, erasing the gains and digging an ever deeper deficit.

Of course, there is more to this story that the plight of the GOP. The historic inroads Democrats made with the Latino population in 2008 introduced a new electoral map calculus that puts as many as 56 electoral votes in the Democratic column (AZ-10, NV-5, CO-9, NM-5, FL-27).

It looks like a rising tide starts in the Southwest. Perhaps even in Kansas.

Tommorrow: 2-to-1. A new generation takes sides.

Christain Morgan open mouth; inserts foot

Ol' Christian Morgan is a small man. He's a petty and small partisan hack who prides himself on negativity. The latest proof comes in what should be remembered as this cycles stupidest line of attack against Nancy Boyda:

"She's not even a Catholic, yet she prioritized going to see the pope higher than doing her job."

Others in attendence at the papal mass included Republican Senators Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts, but Christian Morgan can't be bothered to make sure his sloppy blows don't hit his own candidates. After all, he's a busy man with important things to do.

Like dressing up like the prize patrol to hang out on street corners and wave a big check around.

(Speaking of big checks, Lynn Jenkins owes Shawnee County 3 million dollars.)

Negli-Jenkins? MIA at KPERS

Palin debate answers scripted on cue cards!

If you watched the debate last night, and found yourself wondering why Sarah kept offering non-specific answers at times only tangentially connected to the question at hand then you're like many Americans. And, it turns out, there is a reason she seemed less than fully engaged in the topics last night. Her performance, largely, was scripted so it didn't matter what the question was because many of her answered were provided on note cards.

In this video you can clearly, and repeatedly, observe Palin reading her answers from prepared note cards, often failing to competently deliver the lines that have been prepared.



The first test of a Vice-President candidate is whether or not they're strong enough to lead on his/her own. If Palin can't stand on her own in a debate, how will she lead in a time crisis?


Update, 12:50pm. Just came across humorous image, consider it your Friday Funny.

McCain now acting too presumptive?

This is "counting your eggs before they hatch."

"What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all of the parties to the table, including the House Republicans, whose votes were needed to pass this," -McCain senior Steve Schmidt, yesterday.

So was this:

New Slattery and Obama Ads

This will be another bad week for McCain-Palin

They're already off to a rocky start...

McCain's "straight-talk" persona is falling to pieces, and it's because his campaign can't stop playing loose with the facts. His camapign even distorted the record when they were refuting allegations that they've distorted the record.

Sen. John McCain’s top campaign aides convened a conference call today to complain of being called “liars.” They pressed the media to scrutinize specific elements of Sen. Barack Obama’s record.

But the call was so rife with simple, often inexplicable misstatements of fact that it may have had the opposite effect: to deepen the perception, dangerous to McCain, that he and his aides have little regard for factual accuracy.

Why are they talking about this now, anyway? Shouldn't the topic be the economy? That's how out of touch and removed from reality these people are.

Sarah Palin's favorable rating plummeted 21 points at the start of this week. Then Calra Fiorina, one of McCain's chief advisers, calls her unqualified:

HOST: "Do you think she has the experience to run a major company like Hewlett Packard?"

FIORINA: "No, I don't. But that's not what she's running for."

Bush's approval has reached a record low, again. ARG puts the President at 19%. This downward spiral if fueled by the 82% of Americans who believe the economy is getting worse. The other 18 percent, presumably, agree with John McCain and George W. Bush that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong."

Reality bites, so expect McCain and the Republicans to try to change the topic again.

Lynn Jenkins: Out of Solutions?

This week began with alarming collapse of Lehman Brother Banking. Then Merrill Lynch was pulled from the brink of collapse by Bank of America. AIG's crisis Wednesday was was the third of it's kind in the still young week.

Meanwhile, in an act that would make Nero blush, Lynn Jenkins and Laura Bush hosted Kansas's best heeled Republicans at a ritzy private $7,500 per person gala in Topeka. Talk about fiddling while Rome burns.

In the wake of banking crisis not paralleled since the great depression what solutions did Lynn Jenkins propose? None. Instead her campaign has spent the week employing a new negative tone and desperately trying to change the topic by criticizing Charlie Rangel.

Memo to Lynn Jenkins. You're not running against Charlie Rangel, Rome is burning, and you're avoiding to the most significant issue in this election. Stop playing petty partisan games, show some real leadership and say something positive.

What Economy is McCain Talking about?

Friday Funnies... Sarah Palin Edition

Lynn Jenkins Kansas Trust: Hitched to DC Insiders

Don't let the name mislead lead you, the Lynn Jenkins Kansas Trust has less to do with Kansas than the name suggests.

What is the Lynn Jenkins Kansas Trust? It's a campaign financing scheme the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) are sending to Kansas to help Lynn Jenkins circumvent the spirit of campaign contribution laws. Normally a donor would be limited to donating $2,300 to the Jenkins camapign, but under the construct of "the Trust" donors can now steer as much as $7,500 to Lynn Jenkins.

More significantly though, this "Trust" also creates an inextractable tie between Lynn Jenkins and two of Washington D.C. 's biggest beltway insider committees. It's a shame Lynn Jenkins is so eager and willing to invite these oft-corrupt and out of touch elements into the Kansas political landscape.

Speaking of oft-corrupt and out of touch... all the money raised by President Bush's upcoming Topeka visit will be funneled into this Trust.

State, National GOP slight workers, again

After last Labor Day we noted the absence of the the Kansas Republican Party at the Topeka Labor Day rally.

Jim Ryun, however, couldn't be bothered to be on hand himself. This led one area Labor leader to publicly lament Ryun's parade entry as "an empty gesture, from an empty [House] seat."

This year was different. This time he didn't even bother to send an envoy. Neither did Lynn Jenkins. Nor was Sens. Pat Roberts or Sam Brownback. In fact, the Kansas Republican Party was nowhere to be found.

This year was no different. Pat Roberts and Lynn Jenkins didn't even send volunteers to the largest labor rally in the 2nd District. Understandably, most of the GOP is in the Twin Cities for the week (rumor has it that Jenkins and Roberts did in fact sneak off to the Twin Cities, after they said different).

Of course, with the GOP National Convention opening on Labor Day you'd think John McCain and the Republican Party would pay tribute to contributions working families have made to our nations greatness. Not the case. Sheer political calculation would suggest it would have been a smart appeal to the great number of Union voters McCain will need to carry states like Ohio, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

Instead, Cindy McCain took her diamond encrusted lapel pin and long string of pearls to the stage. (So much for painting the other guy as the one who is out of touch with working families.)

Why would McCain & Co. let such an golden opportunity slip and replace it with such careless optics? It's like Obama said "It's not because John McCain doesn't care. It's because John McCain doesn't get it."

Good riddance to bad rubbish; Stay Red's embarrassing end

"If Bayh is not the nominee, folks, we will shut this blog down - that's how confident we are." -StayRedKansas

We're actually quite shocked those fools at StayRedKansas followed through with their pledge. With the departure of StayRedKansas the Kansas blogosphere is now a little more honest, intelligent and meaningful.

"Our sources close to the situation" (to borrow their smugly self-aggrandizing rhetoric) suggest they based their erroneous assertions on the Obama-Bayh stickers that Gill Studios in Lenexa were allegedly printing.

Whatever the case may be, they were, as they so often were, full of it.

Roberts shying away from debates

Jim Slattery has challenged Pat Roberts to four televised debates.

Pat Roberts has agreed to two televised debates; and one untelevised debate at the state fair.

Explaining Roberts' hesitation to debate Jim a spokesman for Pat Roberts put it thusly; "Roberts believes the debate model that serves the presidential candidates also serves as an appropriate model for Senate candidates,"

By that goofy standard, Pat Roberts owes Jim Slattery at least one more debate since all three Presidential debates are televised.

So Pat, are you a man of your own standard, or a coward?

Bush to campaign for Jenkins

It's now pretty clear that Lynn Jenkin's has decided to cashout her last shreds of independence and dignity.

On September 16th, George W. Bush will be the guest of honor at a fundraiser for Lynn Jenkin's campaign. His presence will surely raise her faltering campaign some much needed cash but it undercuts any claim she can make to being an agent of change, an independence voice, or a new kind of Republican.

The George W. Bush Administration has painfully demonstrated the need for a Congress willing to put the people of their districts before anything else, ask the tough questions, and challenge the failed conventional wisdom of Washington D.C. as Congresswoman Nancy Boyda has done. It's hard to do any of those things when you stand beside George W. Bush, smile, and accept his money, as Lynn will do.

It's been said that the best test of how you'll govern is how you run. If that's true, Jenkin's is showing us her eagerness to be another lackey for the GOP Establishment in Washington, D.C.

Kansas Republicans; a party of duplicity?

It seems Lynn Jenkins isn't the only one wearing flip-flops this August.

This week Freedom's Watch, an DC based 501(c)4 whose close ties to President Bush and Big Oil have drawn the attention of the Federal Ethics Commission, unleashed a viciously dishones t ad campaign against Congresswoman Nancy Boyda this week.

Their attacks are no less scurrilous, dishonest and misleading than KTRM's broadside against conservatives last week, so where are Kris Kobach's pleas for honest and civil discourse now?

When Republicans were the target Kris Kobach & Co. were quick to condemn, stating:

This condemnation of KTRM’s press release has nothing to do with its ideological leanings. ... Attacks like these have no ideology – just right and wrong. What KTRM did, just days before Republicans across the state voted in the primary election, was just plain wrong.

Now that Nancy Boyda is the target of such tactics they sit idly by. Such behavior reveals that Koback's cry for a new kind of politics wasn't at all motivated by a sense of right and wrong, it was an act of political expediency.

His silence now reveals how much he values the truth, and is true test and demonstrable failure of his righteousness. This leaves only one question unanswered, is Lynn Jenkins comfortable benefiting from such duplicity?

Jenkins was against out-of-state groups before she was for them.

Lynn Jenkins is already acting like a typical Washington D.C. insider by saying whatever is most politically expedient for the day's press cycle.

In June she criticized Jim Ryun for counting on "his Washington, D.C. buddies" to "spend $120,000 distorting my record." At the time it sounded like she understood the value of homegrown grassroots democracy, and shared Nancy Boyda's concern that Washington insiders are corrupting the process.

Now that Jenkins is the nominee she's singing a very different song. When Congresswoman Nancy Boyda invited Lynn Jenkins to join her in rejecting help from out-of-state groups Lynn declined. Instead she's rolling out the red-carpet for the National Republican Campaign Committee (the NRCC) and their tainted money.

Tainted Money? You bet. We posted about it some time ago, stating:

Congressional Republican's are now famous for their public corruption. Politico.com has a story that reveals new depths of the Republican Culture of Corruption that infected even the Party's Congressional Campaign Committee; the NRCC. It's a safe bet that the NRCC wants to dump some of it's dirty money in the Kansas 2nd in 2008. It's up to Jim Ryun or Lynn Jenkins to say no to these tainted funds if the NRCC offers it filthy lucre to either of them.

No candidate willing to accept the NRCC's tainted money should be trusted to restore public confidence in government or return ethical behavior to our great nation's capitol. If either Jim or Lynn accept money from the NRCC it's a clear they aren't committed to cleaning up their Party's culture of corruption.

Never forget, the NRCC is the re-elect fund for the very same people who turned a blind-eye to the corruption of Tom Delay, Dennis Hastert, and Tom Reynolds and elected them into powerful leadership positions. If I were running for office as a Republican, I wouldn't touch their money with a 10 foot pole. It's a shame Lynn Jenkins is so eager to welcome corruption into Kansas.

Whats more important to GOP Jenkins? Minnesota or Kansas?

Last year Nancy Boyda was the first member of the Kansas Delegation to publicly disclose all the earmarks her office had requested. Her leadership on earmarks was a refreshing break from Washington secrecy and marked a new era of transparency in the earmark process. Other couldn't help but follow her lead and make public their lists as well.

We're seeing the same quality of leadership now that the Nat'l Conventions are approaching. Nancy Boyda knows her first, and most important responsibility, is to serve the people of Kansas. She also knows that's better done when you're in Kansas, not receptions hosted by Washington insiders at the National Conventions.

It must be hard to argue against such common-sence because almost every candidate for Federal office in Kansas has responded this week by following suit. Almost every one, but not Lynn Jenkins. Lynn refuses rule out her involvement in the Republican National Convention. Apparently, Jenkins rates hobnobbing with the Republican establishment more important than shaking hands with Kansas voters. This is just another chapter in Lynn's long loyalty to the failed policies and partisanship of Bush/Ryun.

Maybe she'll send all of us back in the 2nd Congressional District a postcard from the land o' 1000 lobbyists in August.

Jenkins joins Kobach on the right wing

For 9 days Lynn Jenkins and Kris Kobach have been like two peas in a pod. Everytime you turn around the two of them are up to something together.

First it was the laughable "Unity Rally" in the Statehouse. For the record, this isn't Kobach's first "Unity Rally", and it probably wont be his last. Every few years he finds himself part of this silly exercise that can only aptly be compared to giving a band-aid to a recent amputee in it's effectiveness.

Only days after the Unity rally Jenkins decided to betray and abandon the long support of the Kansas Traditional Republican Majority and moderates, and picked up the flag for the radical conservative Kansas Republican Assembly. Standing beside her as she denounced moderate Republican's last great hope in Kansas was, of course, Kris W. Kobach. So much for unity.

Throughout this whole KTRM/KRA/Jenkins/Kobach affair I can't help but wonder if Kris Kobach sees Lynn Jenkins as a chance for political redemption. His "rally the right" stratedgy didn't play well for him in 2004, but it's becoming obvious that he thinks its right for Lynn Jenkins.

But it's not right for the people of the Kansas 2nd.

Jenkins, counting on DC insiders?

As we noted in Friday's post Jenkins is running to serve the Republican Party.

In the same week Jenkins declared her intention "to win this one for the Party" and serve as a partisan Republican agent, Nancy Boyda burnished her own independent credentials when she asked the Washington Democrats to "stay the heck outta my race."

We're proud that Nancy Boyda wants this race to be decided by the voter of the 2nd Congressional District, not DC insiders.

We'd praise Jenkins if she would follow her lead and ask the DC republicans do the same, but we're not holding our breath. So far, Jenkins isn't proving herself very independent.

Weekend Funnies...

Jim Slatttery interview at SenateGuru.com

Check it out. Here.

Lynn Jenkins: "Jim Ryun and I agree on almost Everything"

They say you can judge a person by the company the keep. If that's the case Lynn Jenkins revealed to Kansans her true colors yesterday at a partisan therapy session in the Statehouse.

She stood squarely between Jim Ryun and Kris Kobach and declared the Kansas 2nd Congressional Distrist "is a Republican district, and I'm going to take it back for Republicans." Apparently she's not motivated by the oppurtunity to solve the multitude of problems facing the middle-class voters in her district. Apparently she's more interested in partisanship that solutions to the energy crisis, the healthcare crisis, and the recession. Apparently she's not motivated by a sense to serve her constituency at large. Apparently her first constituency remains the Kansas Republican Party.

Partisanship. That was Jim Ryun's priority during his 10 years in Congress. What did it get us? Poor constituency services, a parade of corruption, a voting record that mirrored the failed Bush Agenda, and no positive record of accomplishments to boast of (Lynn's already got the latter down).

So, Kansans....meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Pink may be the new Black, but Lynn Jenkins is the new Jim Ryun.

Slattery's new TV commercial

....and we're back!

After a long summer vacation we're happy to be back! Our apoligies go out to all the readers for our disappearing act.

We look forward to your company once again. Please make yourselves comfortable.

Shawnee County Shenanigans; Who really won?

Last night's Republican Primary in the Kansas 2nd was surprising in that not only was the race closer than anyone expected, but also that Lynn Jenkins came out on top. Or did she?

It looks like there's been a significant tabulation error in Shawnee County. Thornburg and his Election Commissioner are keeping pretty low-profile on this embarrassing mistake, and they're keeping mum on whether or not this could affect the outcome of Jenkins v. Ryun.

Here's what this blogger finds so suspicious. Shawnee County Republican Voters would turnout so overwhelmingly for arch-conservative, pro-life, Phill Kline protege Eric Rucker and while also voting for the pro-choice Jenkins. My suspicions are only strengthened by the "goof-ups" in the Election's office.

Once again Jim Ryun was over-estimated. Apparently his campaign was so inept at watching the polling returns that they missed this enormous administration snafu staring them right in the face. What must they do on Election Days? I don't suspect Jim Ryun or his team had the faintest idea that there were problems with the results coming out of the Shawnee County Elections Office. If they knew there were tabulation errors, they certainly wouldn't consider conceding until the integrity of the election was confirmed. More proof he's just simply a fool.

The Cult of Phill Kline

cult: -n. a religion or sect considered to be false, unorthodox, or extremist, with members often living outside of conventional society under the direction of a charismatic leader.

One nifty quality this definition omits is their tendency to engage is destructive, often self-destructive, behavior. Need evidence of this behavior? Look no further than Kline's appointment to the DA's office, or his current decision to enter the Republican Party primary in Johnson County. It's bad for the cause, bad for their party, and exactly the delicious self- destruction that serves Democrats.

What, exactly, are Phill Kline and his supporters thinking? Perhaps never before in Kansas has a failed politician been so fanatically venerated. The last time he faced election before the public in Johnson County he lost, badly. Heck, he barely scrapped together a majority at the precinct committee.

Phill Kline isn't the only member of the Kline Cult sacrificing the GOP on the alter of ideology. In Shawnee County Kline's chief deputy DA Eric Rucker filed against incumbent Republican Robert Hecht for the Republican nomination. Rucker and Kline remind us all that the KS GOP is still more interested in defining its ideology than serving Kansans.

It's clear reason is lost on Kline and Co. Cult members will go to almost any extreme in the name of their cause, and that's what makes them a force to reckon with. Crazy as they may be.

Phill Kline; the gift that keeps on giving

Yesterday Phill Kline reneged on his earlier commitment not to seek a full term as Johnson County District Attorney, which will deny Johnson County Republicans, and Steve Howe, the clean little coronation they were hoping for. For weeks now conservatives have been upset by actions from GOP leadership which appeared to push Kline to the sidelines. They should know by now, Phill Kine pushes back.

The race wasn't looking good for the GOP before Phill Kline entered the race. Rick Guinn, the Republican, has already raised more than $100,000.00 dollars. By comparison, Steve Howe, the third man in this new equation, has raised only $20,000.00.

Even Republicans are singing Rick Guinn's praises. Even arch-conservative hack-artists are calling him "a solid candidate."

You can see, and hear, his announcement here.