Monday, February 2, 2009

Blue Tide Rising is moving!

Blue Tide Readers,

I'm joining forces with the awesome team at Kansas Jackass. You can now read my updates at Kansas Jackass.

Thank you for your continued support!

-KU Blue

Monday, January 26, 2009

>$200,000. A surprising reversal of fortune.

October's financial collapse was a wake-up call for anyone saving for the future. When banks, big banks, started falling like dominoes we turned off our portfolio's auto-pilot and took a closer look at our savings and investments.

This was bad news for McCain and the GOP. Starting in mid-October Americans witnessed a shocking devaluation of their Mutual Funds and 401(K)s. At the very same moment Americans saw a 25%, 30%, 45% devaluation of their retirement savings the GOP's standard bearer cluelessly insisted that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong."

That dissonance was loud, and it apparently woke up the even wealthiest Americans.

Voters with a combined family income greater than $200,000 did a remarkable thing in this election. They voted for a Democrat. This isn't a population that would even have been considered competitive only four years ago. High income families have traditionally occupied a foundational place in the Republican Coalition. They've even earned a clever moniker: "Country Club Republicans. But what a difference four years make; this population swung 17 points towards the Democrats since 2004.

They also doubled in size. This population, only 3% of the electorate in 2004, was 6% of the voting population in 2008. No more cruise control on easy street.

I don't believe 2008 represents a permanent realignment of this population's partisan allegiances, nor do I believe this merely represents a moment of panic. In my opinion this population decided it was time to try something new; which wasn't something the GOP or McCain had to offer. In order to permanently realign this population, Barack Obama and the new administration must successfully create new areas of economic growth. If not, history will judge 2008 a moment of panic.

Tomorrow: Mandate, Part 1; EV 365.
Wednesday: Mandate, Part 2; 10% Congressional MoV.
Thursday: Mandate, Part 3; 58-42.

Family Income Size

Less than $15,000 6% 73% 25% 2%
$15,000–$29,999 12% 60% 37% 3%
$30,000-$49,999 19% 55% 43% 2%
$50,000-$74,999 21% 48% 49% 3%
$75,000-$99,999 15% 51% 48% 1%
$100,000-$149,999 14% 48% 51% 1%
$150,000-$199,999 6% 48% 50% 2%
Greater than $200,000 6% 52% 46% 2%

Family Income Size

Less than $15,000 8% 36% 63% 0%
$15,000–$29,999 15% 42% 57% 0%
$30,000-$49,999 22% 49% 50% 0%
$50,000-$74,999 23% 56% 43% 0%
$75,000-$99,999 14% 55% 45% 0%
$100,000-$149,999 11% 57% 42% 1%
$150,000-$199,999 4% 58% 42% *
Greater than $200,000 3% 63% 35% 1%

Sunday, January 25, 2009

#7: 2-to-1. A New Generation Takes Sides.

Since 2004 Democrats have more than tripled their advantage with young voters. In 2000 voters 18-30 were giving their vote in equal part to each party. Today Democrats have a 31 point advantage within this population (called "Millennials").

Not only is this population giving big margins to Democrats, they're participating at record levels. Pull the adage "young voters don't vote" from Convention Wisdom and refile it under Dangerous Ignorance. Are they harder to reach using tradition methods? Sure. As always, the Party that refuses to evolve it's methods to communicate with the voters through their preferred mode does so at great risk. A windfall of votes awaited the Democratic Party as a result of their embrace of the internet.

For many reasons 2008 has been called "the year of the young voter". There's a dirty little secret Rock the Vote probably doesn't want you to know though. Obama won Gen X and Boomer Generation Voters with a large enough margin that McCain's victory with voters older than didn't matter.* In other words, if Young Voter turnout would have been 0%, Obama still would have won the popular vote. Of course, if the election had been as close as past elections, millennials voters could have swung the outcome.

The Millennial generation will be even larger in 2010 and 2012, perhaps more than 20% of the electorate. Many of them have now voted for Democrats in three consecutive elections, signifying that this is becoming an entrenched behavior for this generation.

Until/unless something transformative occurs, most of this generation will proceed through the next decade as a reliable bloc of votes for the Democratic Party.

Tomorrow: >$200,000. A surprising reversal of fortune.
Age Size
18–29 years old 18% 66% 32% 2%
30-44 years old 29% 52% 46% 2%
45–64 years old 37% 50% 49% 1%
65 years or older 16% 45% 53% 2%

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Blue Tide is still Rising

Pardon my long reprieve from blogging. With the new administration installed, now seems as good as anytime to get back on the keyboard and share my musings with the outside world.

In the wake of (and throughout) the Democratic landslide of 2008 political observers were inundated with so much demographic data that it was wise to always remember the old adage; "it's not the quantity of the data, it's the quality."

So, throughout the next 8 days I will count down the 8 most significant (and under-reported/analyzed) numbers of the 2008 election.

#8. 31%-68% (aka the Latino exodus)
disclaimer: (this number is more significant than it's #8 placement on the list suggests, however, it has received a great deal of attention already from both academia and the media.)

A decade ago Hispanic voters were giving modest and reliable margins to the Democratic Party. Through half a decade of careful courtship George W. Bush effectively challenged the Democrats for this bloc, making slow and steady inroads. In 2000, the RNC nominee collected 35% of the Latino vote. Four years later the RNC nominee made double digit gains with this demographic and collected 45% of the Latino vote.

With the '06 midterms looming Hispanic voters were poised to be the newest swing bloc. Then came a immigration reform debate that put Culture Warrior Conservatives and Country Club Republicans squarley within each others sights. The oft racist debate gave pause to business doners and scared away thoughful latino voters. In the end only 29% of Latino's gave their vote to Republican's in 2006.

Was this abismal performance a temporary backlash against the harsh rhetoric of the GOP in a year where Democrats did better across all demographics, or the harbinger of a more permanent shift in Latino sentiment? We can now say it was the latter. In 2008, a borderstate RNC nominee nabbed only 31% of the Latino vote.

In five years George W. Bush move the dial 10 points with America's fasting growing minority population, but in three short years, the pendulum swung back ever harder, erasing the gains and digging an ever deeper deficit.

Of course, there is more to this story that the plight of the GOP. The historic inroads Democrats made with the Latino population in 2008 introduced a new electoral map calculus that puts as many as 56 electoral votes in the Democratic column (AZ-10, NV-5, CO-9, NM-5, FL-27).

It looks like a rising tide starts in the Southwest. Perhaps even in Kansas.

Tommorrow: 2-to-1. A new generation takes sides.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Halloween on the Jenkins campaign

Bill Roe (Field Director, Jenkins for Congress):

Glad you're having fun now Bill. Tuesday is going to be a disappointment.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Christain Morgan open mouth; inserts foot

Ol' Christian Morgan is a small man. He's a petty and small partisan hack who prides himself on negativity. The latest proof comes in what should be remembered as this cycles stupidest line of attack against Nancy Boyda:
"She's not even a Catholic, yet she prioritized going to see the pope higher than doing her job."
Others in attendence at the papal mass included Republican Senators Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts, but Christian Morgan can't be bothered to make sure his sloppy blows don't hit his own candidates. After all, he's a busy man with important things to do.

Like dressing up like the prize patrol to hang out on street corners and wave a big check around.

(Speaking of big checks, Lynn Jenkins owes Shawnee County 3 million dollars.)