Monday, January 26, 2009

>$200,000. A surprising reversal of fortune.

October's financial collapse was a wake-up call for anyone saving for the future. When banks, big banks, started falling like dominoes we turned off our portfolio's auto-pilot and took a closer look at our savings and investments.

This was bad news for McCain and the GOP. Starting in mid-October Americans witnessed a shocking devaluation of their Mutual Funds and 401(K)s. At the very same moment Americans saw a 25%, 30%, 45% devaluation of their retirement savings the GOP's standard bearer cluelessly insisted that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong."

That dissonance was loud, and it apparently woke up the even wealthiest Americans.

Voters with a combined family income greater than $200,000 did a remarkable thing in this election. They voted for a Democrat. This isn't a population that would even have been considered competitive only four years ago. High income families have traditionally occupied a foundational place in the Republican Coalition. They've even earned a clever moniker: "Country Club Republicans. But what a difference four years make; this population swung 17 points towards the Democrats since 2004.

They also doubled in size. This population, only 3% of the electorate in 2004, was 6% of the voting population in 2008. No more cruise control on easy street.

I don't believe 2008 represents a permanent realignment of this population's partisan allegiances, nor do I believe this merely represents a moment of panic. In my opinion this population decided it was time to try something new; which wasn't something the GOP or McCain had to offer. In order to permanently realign this population, Barack Obama and the new administration must successfully create new areas of economic growth. If not, history will judge 2008 a moment of panic.

Tomorrow: Mandate, Part 1; EV 365.
Wednesday: Mandate, Part 2; 10% Congressional MoV.
Thursday: Mandate, Part 3; 58-42.

Family Income Size
Obama
McCain

Less than $15,000 6% 73% 25% 2%
$15,000–$29,999 12% 60% 37% 3%
$30,000-$49,999 19% 55% 43% 2%
$50,000-$74,999 21% 48% 49% 3%
$75,000-$99,999 15% 51% 48% 1%
$100,000-$149,999 14% 48% 51% 1%
$150,000-$199,999 6% 48% 50% 2%
Greater than $200,000 6% 52% 46% 2%

Family Income Size
Bush
Kerry

Less than $15,000 8% 36% 63% 0%
$15,000–$29,999 15% 42% 57% 0%
$30,000-$49,999 22% 49% 50% 0%
$50,000-$74,999 23% 56% 43% 0%
$75,000-$99,999 14% 55% 45% 0%
$100,000-$149,999 11% 57% 42% 1%
$150,000-$199,999 4% 58% 42% *
Greater than $200,000 3% 63% 35% 1%

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